There is a stark contrast between the tax plans being proposed by John McCain and Barak Obama. There is no need for me to go into the details of each candidate’s tax plans. If you are interested in the details, go to the campaign website for each candidate. Links to the campaign websites are available on the right side of this page.
McCain says he does not want to raise anyone’s taxes. Obama says he will raise taxes only on the richest Americans and that 95% of “working families” will actually receive tax cuts under his plan. Obama believes the richest Americans are not currently paying their fair share of taxes and should pay more.
I would like to address four questions relating to taxes. First, what should be the purpose and philosophy behind the federal government’s tax policies? Second, what is the likely effect of implementing the different tax policies proposed by the two candidates. Third, are the richest Americans currently paying less than their fair share of the total tax burden? Fourth, will 95% of “working families” receive tax cuts under Obama’s plan as he claims?
What should be the purpose and philosophy behind the federal government’s tax policies?
The purpose of taxation in my opinion should be to provide the government with the income it needs to perform essential government services in a manner that is fair to all citizens and in a manner that promotes rather than stifles economic growth. I do not have a problem with progressive tax rates, which we have today, under which higher levels of income are taxed at higher rates. I do not agree, however, that fairness requires the use of taxes to redistribute income from those who have earned it to those who have not. I strongly disagree with Obama’s philosophy, as articulated to the now famous Joe the Plumber, that tax policies should be designed to “spread the wealth around”.
What is the likely effect of implementing the different tax policies proposed by McCain and Obama?
The government’s tax policies can have the effect of stimulating the economy and encouraging growth, which benefits everyone, or of discouraging the savings and investment that is necessary for businesses to grow and for new jobs to be created.
In my opinion, Obama’s proposed tax increases on the richest Americans would substantially weaken an already weak economy. If Obama becomes President and imposes an even heavier burden on the “rich,” I believe the “rich” will find ways to ease the burden, and the result will be less overall government revenue. Moreover, there is an abundance of historical evidence to the effect that increased taxes result in less money available for investment and job creation whereas reduced taxes stimulate the economy and lead to increased government revenue. Do you think you can reduce the incentives for people to work hard, invest, and create jobs without affecting hard work, investment, and job creation? I don’t. For me, I would rather let the “rich” keep their money and invest it than require them to send even more of their money to the government. If you want more of something, like investment and job creation, you tax it less. If you want less of something, you tax it more. It’s as simple as that.
The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Data Analysis (the “CDA”) conducted an economic analysis of the tax policies proposed by McCain and Obama. The Heritage experts made the following conclusions after comparing the plans proposed by McCain and Obama:
(1) More jobs will be created under the McCain plan than under the Obama plan. The CDA concluded that job growth over a ten-year period would be more than twice as high under McCain's plan than under Obama's. It estimated that total annual employment would grow an average of 915,800 jobs under Obama, and by 2,126,000 under McCain.
(2) Overall economic activity will be more vigorous under McCain's plan. The CDA concluded that McCain's plan would yield consistently higher forecasts of economic output than Obama's. Increases in gross domestic product would be nearly three times higher, on average, under McCain’s plan than under Obama’s.
(3) There would be more after-tax spending potential under McCain’s plan than under Obama’s. Using the same model to evaluate both plans, the CDA analysis showed that a family of four would have an average of $5,138 more in disposable income under McCain's plan, and $3,631 more under Obama's.
If you think the primary objective of tax policies should be fairness and redistribution of wealth, then the Heritage Foundation’s conclusions will not be important to you. If you think the primary objective of tax policies should be economic progress, then the Heritage Foundation’s conclusions are probably consistent with your common sense.
Are the richest Americans currently paying less than their fair share of the total tax burden?
Obama and his fellow Democrats want you to believe that the Bush tax cuts in the early part of this decade favored the rich and that the rich are not currently paying their fair share of the total tax burden. Let’s take a look at the facts and then you can draw your own conclusions. The facts are that the top 1% of taxpayers paid 40% of all income taxes in 2006 (the highest share in the last 40 years), the top 10% paid 71% of all taxes, and the top 50% paid 97.1% of all taxes. The rich, of course, paid more taxes because they earned more income. The top 1%, for example, earned 22% of the income but paid 40% of the taxes. The bottom 50% earned 12% of the income but paid only 3% of the taxes.
According to the Tax Policy Center, in 2008, the average combined rate of federal income, payroll, and estate taxes will be 1.1% for the lowest 20% of the income distribution, 15.1% for the middle 20% of income distribution, and 26.2% for the highest 20%. The Tax Policy Center estimates that in 2008 the top 20% of income earners will pay 87.5% of all income taxes and 39.9% of all payroll taxes. These figures, of course, do not reflect the tax increases being proposed by Obama.
If you examine the facts, it is clear that we already have a steeply progressive tax code without the new taxes that Obama wants to impose on the rich. Do you think the top 1% of taxpayers should pay more than 40% of all income taxes or that the top 20% should pay more that 87.5% of all income taxes? What is your definition of fairness? Where would you draw the line?
In discussing taxes, it is important to recognize the difference between income taxes and payroll taxes. Income taxes are designed to provide the government with the revenue that it needs to operate. Payroll taxes represent a mandatory retirement savings plan—the Social Security system—administered by the government. The philosophy behind payroll taxes is that you pay money into the system while you are working and receive Social Security benefits when you retire. The amount of your Social Security benefits upon retirement is based upon the amount that you paid into the system while you were working. Obama has proposed an additional payroll tax on individuals with annual income above $250,000 to help fund the government’s Social Security obligations. He has not said, however, whether additional benefits would be paid to these individuals upon their retirement. As discussed below, Obama also has proposed to send checks in the form of “refundable tax credits” to people who pay payroll taxes but have no income tax liability. These individuals presumably would not receive reduced Social Security benefits upon retirement. In short, Obama’s plan would fundamentally change the philosophy that has governed the Social Security system since it was created in 1935.
Will 95% of “working families” receive tax cuts under Obama’s plan as he claims?
The short answer is no. Obama’s claim that 95% of “working families” will receive a tax cut under his plan is misleading and dishonest. For starters, approximately 40% of the citizens who file income tax returns are not paying any federal income taxes under the current system. How do you give a tax cut to someone who does not pay income taxes? Obama would give “refundable tax credits” to people who pay no income taxes. He refers to these “refundable tax credits” as tax cuts. A “refundable tax credit” is a transfer of money from someone who is paying taxes to someone who is not.
In an editorial dated October 13, 2008, The Wall Street Journal described a “refundable tax credit” as “Washington-speak for the fact that you can receive these checks even if you have no income-tax liability. In other words, they are an income transfer—a federal check—from taxpayers to nontaxpayers. Once upon a time we called this ‘welfare’… Mr. Obama’s genius is to call it a tax cut.”
I have two problems with Obama’s plan to send government checks to people who do not pay income taxes. The first is that Obama is being deceptive by promising “tax cuts” to people who don’t pay income taxes. In reality, the tax cuts described by Obama are not tax cuts but are part of his plan to use the tax code to “spread the wealth around.” I would be more sympathic to Obama’s plan if he would be honest about it rather than trying to fool the American people. My second problem is that I do not believe Obama’s plan will work for the reasons outlined in a column written by Arthur B. Laffer and Stephen Moore and published in The Wall Street Journal dated September 15, 2008. After summarizing their study of Census Bureau data on income and poverty, Mr. Laffer and Mr. Moore reached the following conclusion:
“Taking from the rich through much higher taxes in order to help the poor and middle class makes no sense intellectually and has seldom worked in practice. Reducing rates, on the other hand, does increase the share of taxes paid by the highest income-earning group…… We suspect that Mr. Obama will discover that when you put ‘tax fairness’ ahead of economic progress, you produce neither.”
The Bottom Line
Here is what worries me the most about Obama’s tax plans. We already have a system under which approximately 40% of the citizens who file income tax returns are not paying any income taxes. Under Obama’s tax plans, this percentage will increase and, in addition, many of those who do not pay income taxes will receive a check from the government. You can call this check whatever you want—a rebate, a refundable tax credit, a subsidy, welfare or any other label you prefer. Regardless of the label, we are rapidly approaching the point where the majority of the voters in this country will not pay income taxes, and many of them will receive a check from the government instead of sending a check to the government.
As George Bernard Shaw once said, “A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul.” We will soon have more “Pauls” than “Peters.” How long do you think a system like this can survive? It may survive for my lifetime, but I don’t see how it can survive for the lifetimes of my children and grandchildren. Maybe you don’t care, but I do. I love this country, despite all its faults, and I hope and pray that it will continue to prosper as a beacon of freedom in the world. Votes have consequences. Your vote in this election could well determine the future of the United States of America.