As we enter 2010, it is time to think about the future. What will the New Year bring? My predictions for 2010 and beyond are set forth below. These predictions represent what I think will happen—not what I would like to see happen. Some of my predictions represent my worst fears rather than my best hopes. Here they are:
(1) The world will become a more dangerous place than it already is. Although President Obama would prefer to spend his time and energy on domestic issues, including his plans to remake the American economy and to redistribute wealth, he will be forced by circumstances beyond his control to give substantially more attention to national security issues than he has during his first year in office. President Obama and his advisers will realize he has no chance of re-election if he continues to come across as being weak on national security.
(2) The war on terror will continue on a world-wide basis. The Obama Administration doesn’t like to use the term “war on terror,” but it is what it is. You can call it whatever you want, but Muslim extremists are engaged in a war against Western civilization, whether or not we are engaged in a war against them. Muslim extremists will continue to plan attacks designed to kill thousands of innocent people. They will continue to be successful with numerous small attacks throughout the world. Every now and then, they will be successful with a major attack resulting in the loss of hundreds of lives at one time. Terrorist cells and training and recruitment camps will continue to spring up in new countries. It will be difficult for us to keep up with the terrorists as they move from place to place. Political correctness will continue to hamper our ability to identify potential terrorists and will cost more American lives.
(3) Iran, a state sponsor of terrorism, will continue to develop nuclear weapons. More idle threats from the United States and the United Nations will not deter Iran. Israel ultimately will take aggressive action against Iran in an effort to keep Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. If Iran obtains nuclear weapons, the consequences will be catastrophic. Likewise, the consequences will be catastrophic if Israel bombs Iran’s nuclear facilities. Either way, Iran’s continuing efforts to develop nuclear weapons pose an enormous threat to world peace, but efforts by the world’s leaders to address the problem will continue to be weak and ineffective. There is a possibility of a revolution in Iran with unforeseeable consequences.
(4) President Obama and the Democrats in Congress will be successful in passing health care reform legislation. In the long run, the legislation will be a financial disaster for the country. The legislation will provide health insurance coverage to millions of people who don’t presently have it, but it will lower the quality of health care for those who currently enjoy the best health care in the world. The legislation will increase rather than reduce the cost of health care. The long-term implications of the legislation, however, will not be readily apparent for several years.
(5) The federal government will continue to expand and take control over more and more aspects of the lives of the American citizens. The American citizens are losing their freedoms a little bit at a time, but most of them do not realize it or care. Far too many American citizens will continue to prefer the security provided by government social programs to individual responsibility.
(6) Inflation will not be a major problem in 2010, but it will become a major problem in the years following 2010. The government cannot flood the market with new money without reducing the value of the dollars already in the market. Moreover, the government will not be able to repay the staggering amount of government debt without inflation, which will allow the debt to be repaid with dollars that are worth less than they are today.
(7) The recession will end, but the recovery will be slow, painful, and uneven. The unemployment rate will come down slowly and gradually, but unemployment will continue to be a major problem for many Americans in 2010 and beyond.
(8) The finances of state and local governments will be crippled by virtue of a combination of factors, including new mandates from the federal government, such as those contained in the health care reform legislation, lower property values resulting in reduced revenues from property taxes, and slower economic growth. Some local governments will default on their outstanding bond indebtedness, resulting in panic in the previously low-risk market for tax-free municipal bonds.
(9) The Democrats will maintain control of both Houses of Congress following the mid-term elections in 2010. They will not maintain their 60-vote majority in the Senate, however, and they will have a smaller majority position in the House. As a result, it will be much more difficult for the Democrats to advance their agenda beginning with the new Congress in 2011.
(10) The bitter partisanship between the Democrats and the Republicans in Washington, D.C. will continue. Both sides want it that way. The Democrats want to be able to say the Republicans are standing in the way of progress. The Republicans want to be able to blame everything that goes wrong on the Democrats as long as the Democrats control the White House and both Houses of Congress.
(11) President Obama will win re-election for a new four-year term in November of 2012. Don’t underestimate the power of the President, especially this President, to get what he wants by whatever means are necessary.
(12) Despite all of the threats and problems facing the country, the spirit of the American people will be renewed. Faith and religion will become more important in the lives of many people. The generosity of the American people will continue. Charities and religious organizations will continue to provide help to those in need more efficiently and effectively than the government.
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