Why McCain Lost

Under the circumstances currently facing the country, I don’t believe any Republican candidate could have won the Presidency this year.   George Bush, the current Republican president, has been extremely unpopular for a variety of reasons.    It was inevitable that his unpopularity would rub off on the Republican candidate, whoever he or she happened to be.    Moreover, the economy is facing its worst crisis since the Great Depression, and the sitting President and his party always seem to get the blame for a bad economy or the credit for a good economy, even though there are many other factors (including the decisions of the Federal Reserve Board) that have far more influence on the economy than the President.    In short, it was a bad year to be the Republican candidate for President. 

On the surface, John McCain was probably as strong a candidate as the Republicans could have nominated this year.    He has a reputation as a maverick and an independent thinker.   He has a strong record of acting in a bipartisan manner, unlike many other politicians who like to talk about the need for bipartisanship but who don’t have the record to support their rhetoric.   McCain had disagreed with President Bush and other members of his party on a number of major issues, including campaign finance reform, the original Bush tax cuts, climate change, interrogation methods, spending and earmarks, immigration reform, and the conduct of the war in Iraq prior to the surge, to name just a few.   Because of his independence and his willingness to disagree with his own party, McCain had always been a hero of the news media.   Despite these various advantages, McCain could not overcome the problems encountered by his campaign, some of which were of his own making and some of which were not.   Here are my views about why McCain lost his race for the Presidency: 

(1)    The most important reason McCain lost, of course, was the economy.   McCain was the Republican candidate for President at a time when the country was experiencing a serious economic meltdown and the sitting President was a Republican.    The various causes of the economic meltdown will be debated for years, and there is no doubt that President Bush and his Administration will and should share some of the blame.   But there were many other factors that contributed to the economic crisis, and some of them were well underway before Bush became President and some of them were outside of his control.   As Harry Truman said, however, “the buck stops here,” by which he meant the Oval Office.    

(2)    McCain ran a terrible campaign.   His campaign lacked focus and discipline.   He seemed to bounce around from issue to issue without having a primary theme for his campaign.    Instead of establishing his own agenda, he spent most of his time reacting to Obama or trying to exploit an issue identified for him by someone else, such as Joe the Plumber.  We all know that Barak Obama’s themes were “hope” and “change”.    Can anyone tell me McCain’s themes?     I can’t. 

(3)    The conservative wing of the Republican Party was never happy with McCain because of his independence.    Because of their unhappiness, McCain spent too much time and energy trying to win over the conservatives in his party rather than reaching out to independents and Democrats.    In my view, McCain was wasting his time trying to appeal to conservatives because they were not going to vote for Obama.    I suppose McCain was afraid the hard-core conservatives would stay home and not vote, but I think they would have voted for McCain if for no other reason than to vote against Obama.  McCain should have spent his time and energy trying to broaden the base of the Republican Party rather than trying to appeal to a very narrow base of voters.   President Reagan was successful because he broadened the base of the Republican Party.   Because of his background, McCain should have been able to do the same thing, but he failed to do so.  

(4)     McCain’s background and experience, which should have been an advantage, became a disadvantage at a time when the country was hungry for change and was looking for a new face and a different type of politician.   Likewise, McCain’s age was a disadvantage because his opponent was youthful and charismatic. 

(5)     In my opinion, McCain made a bad decision when he selected Sarah Palin as his running mate.   She appealed primarily to the social conservatives in the Republican Party, but these people, although unhappy with McCain, were probably going to vote for him anyway.   McCain needed a running mate who would appeal to a broader audience, who could attract Hilary Clinton’s supporters, or who could help McCain carry an important state with a lot of electoral votes.    The selection of Palin didn’t accomplish any of these objectives.    Moreover, the selection of Palin, who had no experience in foreign affairs or on the national political scene, made it much more difficult for McCain to use Obama’s lack of experience against him. 

(6)    Despite Obama’s victory and the strong gains in Congress by the Democratic Party, I think the large majority of voters in this country are still moderate to conservative.  I don’t believe most voters want a big and all-powerful government that is involved in every aspect of their lives.   As a result, I believe McCain should have had an advantage over Obama on the issues.  McCain was very ineffective, however, in explaining his positions and in linking them to a broader philosophy of government.   During the debates, McCain missed numerous opportunities to explain and justify his positions and to distinguish his positions from those being proposed by Obama. 

(7)    The news media loved McCain before he won the Republican nomination, but they turned against him during his campaign for the Presidency.  Prior to the election, the Pew Research Center’s Project for Excellence in Journalism conducted a study and concluded that “coverage of McCain has been heavily unfavorable—and has become more so over time.  In the six weeks following the conventions through the final debate, unfavorable stories about McCain outweighed favorable ones by a factor of more than three to one—the most unfavorable of all four candidates.”  

(8)     The country’s recent success in the war in Iraq was due in no small measure to McCain, who had been very critical of Bush’s conduct of the war and who urged a change in strategy in order to achieve victory rather than defeat.   McCain supported the troop surge, which was successful.    Ironically, the success of the troop surge took Iraq out of the news.    Numerous polls showed the majority of voters had more confidence in McCain than Obama as Commander-in-Chief.    But the success in Iraq combined with the economic meltdown had the effect of de-emphasizing the most significant issue on which McCain had an advantage over Obama. 

(9)     McCain made a major strategic mistake when he suspended his campaign for a few days and went back to Washington to deal with the financial crisis facing the country.   He did not demonstrate any leadership in dealing with the financial crisis, and it was never clear exactly where he stood.    

(10)    Finally, most people, including conservatives like me, are very disillusioned with the Republican Party.   The Republicans squandered a major opportunity when they controlled the Presidency and both Houses of Congress.  The Republican Party lost its soul, and it is still paying the price for its irresponsibility. 

In summary, it is possible that McCain never had a chance because of the country’s hunger for change and because he represented the Republican Party.   But McCain’s chances were further diminished by bad luck and an ineffective campaign.