A Big Stinking Mess

President Obama promised to transform America. He’s doing it. He promised to redistribute the nation’s wealth. He’s doing it. Like him or not, you have to give President Obama credit for perseverance. He is accomplishing his goals one step at a time.

The federal government now has or soon will have almost complete control over virtually all aspects of our economy, including health care, education, energy, and banking, not to mention the government’s ownership of a major insurance company, two major automobile manufacturers, and two companies that provide most of the financing for home mortgages. The government this week is taking over the student-loan market.

The printing presses are constantly humming with new laws and regulations affecting everyone. Environmentalists should be going nuts because of all the trees that are being killed to print all of the new laws and regulations.

If you want a large and strong federal government with extensive powers, these are indeed happy days for you. If you believe in small government and personal responsibility, these are very dark days, and they are only getting darker. Liberty and freedom and fast becoming words that no longer describe the United States of America.

Whether or not you are a believer in the massive changes currently taking place in this country, you should be alarmed, disgusted and outraged by the process through which these changes are being implemented and by the amount of debt being incurred to pay for the changes. The process can only be described as a big stinking mess. The debt being incurred will impose an enormous burden on our children and grandchildren.

Congress this week finally passed President Obama’s health care legislation, which was quickly signed into law by a jubilant President. Legislation that will restructure approximately one-sixth of the country’s economy was passed by a purely partisan vote in both Houses of Congress. Members of the Democratic Party cast all of the votes for the health care legislation. All Republicans and even some Democrats voted against it. The President who promised to bring bipartisanship to Washington, D.C. has become one of the most partisan Presidents in history.

The Democrats who voted for the health care legislation did so after weeks of intimidation, bribes, arm-twisting, threats, job offers, special perks, backroom deals, and misrepresentations regarding the scope, content, and cost of the legislation. We will never know all of the promises and secret deals that were made by President Obama and party leaders to secure the needed votes for the legislation. Based on news reports, however, it is apparent that many of the Democrats who voted for the legislation did so after receiving something of value to them in exchange for their vote. I hope we all agree this is not the way any legislation, especially legislation of this magnitude, should be enacted. The smell from this big stinking mess may never go away.

Although the legislation is now law, the big stinking mess continues. At least 14 states have filed lawsuits claiming the legislation is unconstitutional. In my opinion, the legislation violates the language and spirit of our Constitution, but I think it’s highly unlikely the Supreme Court will so rule. Republicans will attempt to have the legislation repealed if they are successful in regaining control of Congress. Again, in my opinion, it’s highly unlikely they will be successful in doing so. Entitlement programs never go away. They only get expanded.

The health care legislation will inevitably cost far more than advertised. In passing the legislation, the Democrats relied on cost estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. The Congressional Budget Office, however, based its cost estimates on assumptions provided by the Democrats. The estimates are only as good as the assumptions. Most observers believe the assumptions are unrealistic. In addition, anyone who has tried to project revenues and expenses for a business knows that projections covering the next three years—let alone the next ten years—are totally unreliable. Finally, in order to reduce the estimated ten-year cost of the legislation, the Democrats decided the new taxes and fees would begin immediately but most of the costs would be deferred for four years. In other words, it will take ten years of revenue to pay for six years of spending. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand what happens in the next ten-year period.

Almost every action taken by Congress has unintended consequences. I believe the unintended consequences from the health care legislation will be massive and far-reaching. I had lunch last week with some old friends with whom I used to work. Three of them said they or their spouses had doctors who were no longer accepting Medicare patients because of the low Medicare reimbursement rates. We can now expect to see more doctors who refuse to accept Medicare and Medicaid patients unless the government finds a way to force them to do so against their will. Doctor shortages are inevitable, which will mean longer wait times to see a doctor. Although President Obama adamantly claims the legislation will not result in health care rationing, I think he is wrong. In fact, we already have rationing. You won’t have to look very far to find someone who has been denied a medical test by Medicare or by an insurance company. We will see more rationing in future years as the pressure to control costs intensifies. It’s inevitable.

Some of the unintended consequences will be hard to track. The new taxes imposed by the legislation will be passed on to consumers. The higher costs incurred by employers will result in lower wages or fewer jobs or both. The new taxes on medical devices will result in higher costs, which will be passed along to consumers, or less medical innovation, or both.

The Republicans believe the Democrats committed political suicide by passing the health care legislation. I disagree. Although the legislation is highly unpopular now, the Democrats are much better salesmen than their Republican counterparts, and it will take many years for all of the problems resulting from the legislation to be apparent. In the meantime, the Democrats will be constantly reminding us of the good features of the legislation, and there are some. Moreover, history has demonstrated time and again that the American voters have short memories. It’s far too early to write off the Democrats or to assume the Republicans will be able to benefit from the big stinking mess caused by the Democrats. When it’s time to cast our ballots in the next election, most of us will realize the Republicans created their own stinking mess when they were in power, and there is no reason to believe they wouldn’t do so again if they regained control of Congress.

For the time being, all we can do is sit back and observe the massive changes taking place in our country. Is this “change you can believe in”? I think it’s a big stinking mess!